World Agenda: EU prepares to welcome President Tony Blair

(John Thys/AFP/Getty Images)

Mr Blair has become the top candidate while diplomatically showing little interest in the post

David Charter in Brussels

One by one, the field of names to become the first president of the EU is slowly clearing, leaving a certain Middle East envoy as favourite for the job.

Should the Irish vote “yes” to the Lisbon treaty at the second time of asking, thus creating the new presidential role, Tony Blair is well placed to benefit. He still enjoys powerful support among the 27 EU leaders and is said by those around him to be interested in a return to European politics as their convener and global representative.

There would appear to be two obstacles: the Irish and Angela Merkel.

Mr Blair has become the top candidate while diplomatically showing little interest in the post. Behind the scenes, however, he has kept in touch with his main sponsors around the EU table: Nicolas Sarkozy, Silvio Berlusconi, Gordon Brown and the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, with whom he dines regularly.

Mr Sarkozy originally had two favourites for the new permanent post of President of the European Council – Mr Blair and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, who also chairs the “euro group” of the 16 single-currency countries.

Mr Juncker was a serious rival to Mr Blair because he attracted support from Germany, too, which has always wanted a “true European” in the post — that is, someone whose country used the euro and did not keep opting out of EU initiatives.

Mr Juncker has fallen badly out of favour with Mr Sarkozy, however, not least by grumbling about the French President’s brazen attempts to hijack the euro group. He is out of the running as far as Mr Sarkozy is concerned.

Ms Merkel was also keen on Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish Prime Minister, who let it be known some time ago that he wanted to work on a bigger stage. But along came the Secretary-General post at Nato and — despite complaints from Turkey over the Dane’s handling of the Prophet Muhammed cartoon crisis — Mrs Merkel was key in persuading President Obama to accept Mr Rasmussen.

With these two out of the way, there seems no obvious alternative to Mr Blair. Furthermore, his role as Middle East envoy for the Quartet has gone some way to restoring his reputation after his support for the invasion of Iraq angered many Europeans.

The new post replaces the rotating presidential role taken by the leader of whichever of the 27 EU nations is chosen to organise the agenda for the next six months. It is supposed to give continuity for countries such as China and Russia, who are said to be bemused that the leadership changes so often and between different political persuasions.

The latest six-month presidency, held by the Czechs, is widely said to have reinforced the need for greater permanency. It has been a disaster in PR and continuity terms, with the Government of Mirek Topolánek being ousted after a vote of no confidence on the eve of the G20 summit, leading to a caretaker administration running both the Czech Republic and the agenda of the EU.

Then there is the eccentric behaviour of the eurosceptic Czech President, Vaclav Klaus, who calls the EU the new Communism and rejects the possibility of man-made climate change — despite the need for a major policy drive towards a CO2 deal at Copenhagen later this year.

No one is keener on a permanent EU president than Mrs Merkel, but she has yet to make clear what kind of president she wants. Some senior figures in Berlin would prefer a lower-key candidate than Mr Blair, who might outshine the leader of the EU’s largest power. But others seem to think that only someone of Mr Blair’s star quality should be considered.

Berlin and Paris will liaise to make sure they get the president they want and one key policy difference is looming which could wreck Mr Blair’s chances. As Prime Minister he was instrumental in relaunching Turkey’s application for EU membership in 2005. Since then the French and Germans have become increasing hostile, with Mr Sarkozy openly talking about Europe’s natural borders stopping well before the Bosphorus.

Mr Blair could neutralise this issue — no one, not even Turkey’s most fervent supporters, envisages it joining in the next five years, the maximum possible length of the first EU president’s mandate.

Does Mr Blair want it? He has said nothing directly about it, but in an interview with The Times in January he was asked: “When will you feel real frustration if you don’t see real progress?” He answered: “Probably this time next year.” It was a hint that he was thinking of moving on — just when EU leaders want their president to start. If the Irish play ball.

There is one candidate who would certainly rival Mr Blair if she ran, and that is Mrs Merkel herself. Her fate, and the future career of Mr Blair, rests with German voters in the autumn.

Blair and Obama: Tony walks on water again

Photograph: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

When I saw that photo of Tony Blair kissing Michelle Obama in today's papers, I thought of that old Jewish word, chutzpah. As in overwhelming cheek.

He kissed the Clintons, he kissed the Bushes (I won't say exactly where, George) and now he's kissing his new best friends, Barack and Michelle. What a guy!

Strictly speaking, TB didn't beat Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy and the rest of the over-competitive leadership egos into the Oval Office.

This was a congressional invitation, not from the White House, to be the main speaker at yesterday's national prayer breakfast. Blair is still big box office in the US. Brown will have his turn when the prez joins the G20 in London on 2 April.

But, as you probably saw, the Obamas were present for yesterday's breakfast and the president said nice things about "my good friend" (which can't actually be true, not yet), how he "did it first and perhaps did it better than I will do".

That's a stretch, too. It's not yet clear how history will view the Blair premiership. As with Bill Clinton, there's a general sense of missed opportunities, though it's too soon to say, either at home or abroad.

Those Iraqis, for instance – they had elections last weekend that went off so quietly you hardly read anything about them.

There again, Blair has had far less impact trying to move the Palestine/Israel peace process forward than he had initially hoped or expected.

Today's Mail got excited about the 31 references Blair made to God in the course of yesterday's speech, which warned Obama that he will need "not cheerleaders but partners, not spectators but supporters".

"So Blair does do God," shouted the paper, which always gets overlooked in parliamentary surveys – the Lords produced a thoughtful one yesterday – on the growth of an intrusive surveillance society.

That misses the point, too: Blair is no longer an elected British public official and can say what he likes. It wasn't him that said he "didn't do God" either – it was his atheist bagman, Alastair Campbell.

Blair illustrated residual British disdain for mixing politics and religion – a healthy disdain, says me – by telling his audience that he'd once wanted to say "God bless the British people" at the end of some crisis broadcast.

But officials had slapped him down. "Really, prime minister, this is not America, you know." So he said it anyway in Washington yesterday: "God bless you all."

The papers are full of economic gloom and allegations of British complicity in the supression of torture , not to mention alleged Whitehall nudge-nudge briefing against Rachel Reid in the Afghan official secrets case. Disturbing stuff.

Yet Blair, tanned and trim, wafts serenely above it all.

He touched down in Heathrow just after breakfast, but he'll be back on the other side of the pond again soon. He plans to open a US branch of his Faith Foundation to promote religious understanding this year, with Obama's apparent blessing.

At yesterday's session, both men apparently quoted near identical passages from the Bible, Qu'ran and Torah to explain how moral law binds together all faiths.

"Tony and I didn't coordinate here. There is a little serendipity," explained the president.

Ah, a president who uses "serendipity". I feel better already.

Sarkozy forever? EU uneasy on leadership bid

Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:42am EST
-- Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist, the opinions expressed are his own --

By Paul Taylor

PARIS (Reuters) - Not content with a temporary role as first consul, Nicolas Sarkozy wants to be emperor of Europe. That, at least, is the way it looks to many of his EU partners.

The energetic French president has relished his term in the European Union's rotating presidency so much -- playing fireman during the Georgia war and the global financial crisis -- that he is loath to cast off the mantle at midnight on December 31.

His aides are working actively on ways to perpetuate his European leadership into 2009 and beyond, using the euro zone, NATO, the new Mediterranean Union, Middle East diplomacy and a continuing mediation role with Russia and Georgia as levers.

The fact that Paris hands over the six-month presidency to the Czech Republic, an EU newcomer with a divided government, a Eurosceptical president and no seat in the euro zone, may help Sarkozy's bid to extend his influence.

But apart from the implicit challenge to EU institutions, the problem is the economic policy direction in which he wants to lead Europe, taking advantage of the credit crisis and recession to push old-fashioned French "dirigisme" (state direction of the economy).

The main obstacle is the reluctance of Germany, the EU's biggest economy and France's traditional partner in leadership.

Chancellor Angela Merkel is deeply suspicious of Sarkozy's efforts to build greater euro zone economic governance and irked by his effort to position himself as the "go to" man in Europe for incoming U.S. President Barack Obama.

She sees his calls for an "economic government of Europe" as a challenge to the independence of the European Central Bank and a recipe for protectionism and government meddling in industry.

"Merkel is always polite and the Germans don't like to be troublemakers. But at some point soon, they are going to say: 'Enough!'," says Ulrike Guerot, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"SUPER SARKO"

"Super Sarko" has called a record number of summits during his hyper-active EU presidency, traveling twice to Moscow to broker a ceasefire and a Russian pullback in Georgia, and twice to Washington to press for a global financial summit and more international regulation in the credit crisis.

He has set ambitious economic agendas for the EU and the G20 grouping of industrialized and emerging powers, although the results have been far more modest.

"Sarkozy has shaken things up, not just out of personal ambition but out of a belief that Europe needs strong political leadership to overcome its complex routine and face up to the challenges of our times," says Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert Schuman Foundation think-tank.

Giuliani described the French leader in a recent book as "a European in a big hurry," determined to put France back in the pilot's seat of EU integration and willing to use unorthodox methods to achieve his objective.

Sarkozy broke the straitjacket of EU institutions by holding meetings of the leaders of the four biggest European economies -- France, Germany, Britain and Italy -- and of the 15-nation Eurogroup of countries that share the euro single currency.

He formed a pragmatic alliance with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, not an EU enthusiast, to promote bold steps to rescue banks, revive interbank lending and respond to recession.

And he has displayed a ruthless streak in undermining those he perceives as standing in the way of his leadership.

Blaming tax havens for part of the financial crisis, Sarkozy dared to snipe at Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, Europe's longest serving leader and chairman of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, over his country's banking secrecy.

He also signaled that the financial crisis was likely to require more euro zone summits in 2009, which he wants to chair.

Juncker, a critic of French budget deficits, speaks on behalf of the Eurogroup and is a contender for the post of president of the European Council of EU leaders if and when the Lisbon Treaty reforming the bloc's institutions takes effect.

French Secretary of State for European Affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet, Sarkozy's key fixer during the EU presidency, openly criticized Germany for resisting French proposals for a coordinated European economic recovery program.

"Why don't you think the Germans are making a profound mistake?" he asked a radio interviewer. "All we are saying is that it is better to have an economic union and economic coordination than to have disorderly national responses."

DIPLOMATIC CALENDAR

Next year's diplomatic calendar offers Sarkozy plenty of opportunities to flex his leadership muscles while Germany will be inwardly focused in an election year and Britain mired in a deeper and more painful recession than the rest of Europe.

One showcase will be an April 3-4 NATO summit, jointly hosted by France and Germany in Strasbourg and Kehl, which will be the centerpiece of Obama's first presidential visit to Europe and mark France's return to the alliance's military wing.

Expect Sarkozy to put on an impressive show to highlight Paris' role as Washington's new indispensable ally, perhaps offering more troops for Afghanistan and proposing a European peacekeeping role in any Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement.

The French have secured two years as co-president of the Mediterranean Union grouping the EU and its southern neighbors, giving Paris opportunities for high-profile initiatives with North Africa and in the Middle East.

Sarkozy's gambit of bringing Syria in from the cold in exchange for cooperation in Lebanon could bear fruit in 2009 as Obama looks for an exit from Iraq and breathes new life into Middle East peacemaking.

His good relations with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, which enabled him to broker the Georgia ceasefire, could pay off if Obama opts for detente rather than confrontation with Moscow.

But his coziness with the Kremlin worries EU governments in central and eastern Europe.

The risk is that Sarkozy, whose restless energy sometimes gets the better of diplomatic calculation, overplays his hand, offending European partners and irritating Washington.

America's new French connection

Commentary: Sarkozy and Obama prepare combination to save the world -- at least for a while

By David Marsh, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT Oct. 27, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Franco-American presidential combinations have frequently stirred the blood, but they produce a cocktail that has mostly been laced with venom.
Charles de Gaulle challenged John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson over gold; François Mitterrand tried to stand up to Ronald Reagan over Star Wars; Jacques Chirac defied George W. Bush on Iraq.
In the future, such acrimony could all be forgotten. If Barack Obama wins the U.S. presidency, expect an extraordinary love-in with French President Nicolas Sarkozy across a broad range of economic and monetary issues. Franco-American relations may never be the same again.
The ingredients are all in place. The French president swept to power in May 2007, burning with Americanophilia -- and with ill-concealed passion for hyper-active political management.
Sarkozy spent much of his first 15 months in office nursing grievances that the rest of the world was not taking much notice of his demands for high-level measures to improve the international economy.
Since the beginning of October, however, Sarkozy has burst into the headlines with a vengeance. Presiding over European affairs while France takes its six-month turn in the chair of the European Union, Sarkozy played a leading role in a series of high-profile measures to coordinate the continent's attempt to climb back from the economic abyss.
Provided he wins, Obama seems to be just the man to join a duet with Sarkozy that could complete the French president's transformation.
Problem: Freshly-elected American leader promises to change the world, but lacks any kind of foreign policy experience. Solution: Find a successful and energetic mentor with similar inspirational ideas.
What better candidate than the enfant terrible in the Elysée Palace? Six years Obama's senior, Sarkozy can dispense advice with the aura, by comparison with the Democrat leader, of an elder statesman. The alternative sources of wisdom for Obama -- the U.K.'s Gordon Brown and Germany's Angela Merkel -- look pale and tired by comparison, and both face difficult elections in the next two years.
The two men's similarities are striking.
Like Obama, Sarkozy has managed to build a brilliant political career that has overcome his "outsider" status as the son of an immigrant father. Like Obama, Sarkozy exudes missionary fervor. Like Obama, Sarkozy presides over ample reserves of innovative thinking. The potential list of issues on which both men would like to spend time could hardly be wider-ranging.
Reforming the International Monetary Fund? Expanding public spending on infrastructure? Improving coordination between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank? Establishing new mechanisms for banking supervision? Safeguarding domestic companies against aggressive sovereign wealth funds? Whatever the questions, the Sarkozy & Obama combination can be relied upon to come up with the answers.
All these topics can be expected to make the agenda when Sarkozy attends the planned world economic summit to be convened by George W. Bush and his designated successor on Nov. 14 in Washington. A fine opportunity to put the world to rights.
With the right kind of American at his side, Sarkozy can escape the cares of recession, high unemployment and low competitiveness at home, and open up a new front for an improved transatlantic alliance in a troubled world.
The stuff of dreams -- and there's just a chance that the anticipated new bond between Paris and Washington will last longer than a honeymoon period.

Angela Merkel sees red at Nicolas Sarkozy's plans for state intervention

Adam Sage in Paris
President Sarkozy is set for a showdown with Angela Merkel today after infuriating the German Chancellor with the launch of a €100 billion (£80 billion) French sovereign investment fund that he exhorted other European governments to copy.

Brushing aside Berlin's qualms, Mr Sarkozy yesterday outlined plans for the fund as part of a programme to strengthen public sector control over private business. He also promised €175 billion of direct state investment in the economy, over and above the sovereign fund, in the next three years.

Claiming that the financial turmoil had killed “the dictatorship of the market”, he pledged to lead Europe towards a new economic system, which opponents said bears a striking resemblance to the old French model of heavy state intervention.

Mr Sarkozy said the drive would be spearheaded by an investment vehicle - loosely described as a sovereign wealth fund - to be set up by the end of the year. The fund would “intervene massively each time a strategic company is in need of capital”.

“We cannot leave business at the mercy of predators,” Mr Sarkozy said. “What oil producers do, what China does, what Russia does, there's no reason that France should not do.”

However, critics said that, with budget debt of €1,200 billion, Paris did not have any wealth to spare.

In practice, Mr Sarkozy appears intent on merging a variety of existing state investment tools into a fund under the control of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, the institution managing state savings accounts and pensions. The French Government said that the fund would be worth about €100 billion.

Mr Sarkozy's speech, made in the French Alps, put flesh on ideas floated before MEPs in Strasbourg this week, when he called for action to stop European company's from falling into foreign hands. He wants Europe's leaders to draw inspiration from the 2004 rescue of Alstom, the engineering giant, which he oversaw as Finance Minister. The French Government bought a €720 million stake; two years later, this was sold for €1.98 billion.

But the initiative has widened the rift between Berlin and Paris over how to handle the financial crisis.

A spokesman for the German Government suggested that the Gallic move might fall foul of European law. He said that Mrs Merkel would hold what is certain to be a frosty meeting with Mr Sarkozy to discuss the investment fund during the summit of EU and Asian leaders in Beijing today.

France's Sarkozy emerging as leading figure

President Nicolas Sarkozy heads to Asia this week to broach the idea of bringing India and China together with G-8 nations in a 'Bretton Woods II' framework of economic rules.
By Robert Marquand | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the October 22, 2008 edition
Paris - A year ago, France's new president raced around Europe looking frenetic. Nicolas Sarkozy's wife had left him, critics pointed to a lack of discipline and a royal style of rule – a man who moved but didn't shake – and his popularity nosedived.
This week Mr. Sarkozy worked with President Bush to set up a series of meetings to reform the global economy, and he's now off to Asia to broach the idea of bringing India and China together with G-8 nations in a "Bretton Woods II" framework of economic rules. This comes just weeks after he moved with alacrity to broker a cease-fire deal to end the Georgia-Russia war.
Critics still point to Sarkozy's proclivity to turn politics into a show and to unashamedly take credit whenever possible. Yet in the space of a summer he has consolidated his power and blended substance with showmanship, and is now winning praise as a crisis leader in a more multipolar world.
"I think today that everyone, even those who had misgivings, acknowledge that [Sarkozy] not only has great political energy, but also exceptional leadership qualities," commented José Manuel Barroso, the EU chief who accompanied Sarkozy to Camp David this weekend.
The French president's peripatetic style is proving useful for a major crisis with multiple elements – which plays into his ability to do many things at once.
He's been blessed with good political winds: with Russia's invasion of Georgia, and with US world stock at an ebb, it is Europe's hour at a time when the EU presidency is held by France.
Europe boldly took the lead in response to the global financial crisis by offering a plan devised by Gordon Brown and, later, Sarkozy that recapitalized banks to aid the economy.
While the White House moved quickly to propose a $700 billion bailout, it finally adopted Europe's plan to address liquidity and agree to a series of Bretton Woods-style meeting after the US presidential elections on Nov. 4.
Sarkozy has quickly adopted a bully pulpit for Europe and its traditionally more measured approach to markets. In Strasbourg Tuesday, speaking to the European Parliament, he stated that Europe "must carry the idea of a new foundation of global capitalism. What happened [with toxic assets and derivatives that created a credit crisis] was a treason of the values of capitalism," he said. "The market economy itself is not called into question."
France moved this week to lend 10.5 billion euros ($14.12 billion) to six banks to boost their capital reserves.
Man of action
"He can walk into a crisis and take action. That's what a leader does; it's what Sarkozy is good at," says a former French political consultant to the prime minister's office. "He chases down an answer, he doesn't let it go. The 27 EU nations need someone who gets an agreement. We are in a crisis, and he stayed calm amid serious market fear. With no crisis, it might be a different story."
Sarkozy has had issues with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose aides complained that Sarkozy would step in and steal headlines and the hard-earned thunder of a German leader who did her homework when Germany led the EU in 2007.
But German newspapers, such as the conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and German analysts have praised quick French action in mediating between Russia and Georgia, and point to Sarkozy's good faith bargaining in the final hours of the crucial Lisbon Treaty to unify Europe last year, where he and Ms. Merkel achieved a historic agreement.
"He's become more of a diplomat and political manager than a personality show," argues Henning Riecke of the Berlin-based German Council of Foreign Relations.
There's been some back and forth between the British and French press over who deserves the lead position in Europe on the credit crisis, Gordon Brown – who Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said "saved the world" with his plan – or Sarkozy. But the spat doesn't appear to be originating at the top.
Cool in a crisis?
It was as a cool crisis manager that Sarkozy first came to broad attention in France.
As mayor of the tony Paris suburb of Neuilly in 1993, Sarkozy faced a hostage situation where a man calling himself the "human bomb" entered a nursery school with a rifle and explosives.
Sarkozy went directly into the school, negotiated with the disturbed man, and walked out surrounded by the children.
The police later shot the man; but no one had seen a politician act like this before.
Still, a year ago after a hard-fought campaign, Sarkozy looked like the incredible shrinking president.
His marriage had collapsed, he faced strikes by transport workers that shut down France's subway system, and efforts to create a "tax shield" for wealthy French citizens was deeply unpopular in a country where vanishing "purchasing power" was on many French lips.
Monsieur 'bling bling'
Sarkozy was criticized for lavish vacations, for garish "bling bling" tastes, for putting his personal life in front of the media as he courted supermodel Carla Bruni, whom he later married. His approval rating fell from 65 to 32 percent.
A rude epithet by Sarkozy to a critic at a farm show outside Paris was posted on YouTube in February. Even in July, hopes for a glorious French presidency of the EU that would bring a ratification of the Lisbon Treaty looked dashed, as Ireland refused to ratify it. He faced pressure in August after a Taliban attack killed nearly a dozen French troops.
Yet what the presidents of Denmark and Luxembourg have called Sarkozy's "intensity" in negotiating with Moscow, and with Washington in pushing a European model of reform – has put Sarkozy's approval up to 49 percent.
Even columnists like Jean Quatremer, for the left-wing Liberation, not a bastion of Sarkozy support, have been feeling pride in the president's achievements: "Apart from the British," Quatremer wrote this week, "who have always had a hard time acknowledging positive developments from the continent in general, and France in particular, everyone is seduced by Sarkozy's activism and ability to compromise."
"A lot of this moment could be as in the past, public relations and spin" says a long time Parisian commentator, pointing out that in Sarkozy's negotiations with Russian President Medvedev last month, both men emerged with dramatically different accounts of what had been decided. "We'll have to wait and see."

4 European nations call for new EU body to supervise banks+

PARIS, Oct. 5 (AP) - (Kyodo)—Four major European nations agreed Saturday to set up within the European Union a body to supervise banks as part of their efforts to stem the spread of the financial turmoil, triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, in Europe.

In a statement released after an emergency summit in Paris to deal with the financial crisis, leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy said mechanisms should be established within the European Union to oversee cross-border European financial institutions and enhance international cooperation.

The four nations also agreed that should public support be necessary for ailing financial institutions, it should take place in "a framework which recognizes adequate protection of taxpayers' money, the responsibility of managers, and shareholders to bear their share of the burden."

They welcome the decision of the European Investment Bank to mobilize 30 billion euros of support for small and medium size European enterprises and urge the bank to frontload this effort, the statement said.

The four European Group of Eight member nations also agreed that the application of the Stability and Growth Pact, which governs fiscal policies of EU member states, should "reflect the current exceptional circumstances."

The pact requires EU member states to limit the size of their budget deficit to less than 3 percent of gross domestic product.

But the agreement by Britain, France, Germany and Italy suggests they will tolerate the deficit of an EU member state breaching the 3 percent of GDP threshold if it occurs as a result of the nationalization of failed financial institutions.

The four nations also expressed strong support for the recent actions taken by the European Central Bank and other European central banks to respond to the financial crisis and pledged to "take all the necessary measures" to ensure the soundness and stability of the European banking and financial system.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy told a press conference after the summit that an emergency G-8 summit should be convened to discuss and come up with global countermeasures for the crisis.

In addition to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, other European leaders, including ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet attended the summit.

Pope backs Sarkozy in faith and politics row

At the start of his first official visit to France, Benedict XVI has fuelled controversy over the place for faith in public life

Pope Benedict XVI exchanges presents with Carla Bruni and Nicolas Sarkozy
Charles Bremner in Paris

Pope Benedict XVI waded into French politics yesterday, throwing his weight behind a controversial drive by President Sarkozy to put religious faith back into the life of the strictly secular state.

An hour after President Sarkozy and Carla Bruni, his wife, had greeted him at Orly airport, the Pope told the Cabinet and opposition leaders in the Elysée Palace that he shared the President's view that politics and religion must be open to one another.

The Pontiff's remarks opened a difficult four-day mission to rekindle enthusiasm for the Roman Catholic faith in one of the world's least godfearing nations. Fewer than five per cent of the historically Roman Catholic French attend services regularly. Fifteen per cent of the French call themselves atheists - a figure that is double the European average. Up to half a million people are, however, expected to turn out for open air masses on the Left Bank of Paris on Saturday, and at the shrine of the Virgin Mary at Lourdes on Sunday.

"At this moment in history when cultures continue to cross paths more frequently, I am firmly convinced that a new reflection on the true meaning and importance of laicité (secularism) is now necessary," said the German-born Pope, who is a far more fluent French speaker than John Paul II, his predecessor.

Separation of church and state was necessary, he added, but societies must also be "more aware of the irreplaceable role of religion for the formation of consciences and the contribution which it can bring to ...the creation of a basic ethical consensus."

That thought might be unremarkable elsewhere, but in France it is seen to infringe the law of laicité -- strict secularism -- first established with the bloody purge of the clergy in the 1790s and confirmed in 1905 when the state took over church property.

Mr Sarkozy has stirred the wrath of the left and part of the establishment with a drive for what he calls "positive secularism". He used the Pope's first visit to France to hammer the message today. Some opposition leaders even accused him of breaching the law by inviting a religious leader into the Elysée palace. They also objected to Mr Sarkozy's airport trip to greet him, the first time that the President has conferred that honour on a visiting leader since taking office in May 2007.

The President, who is twice divorced and a self-described lapsed Catholic, said in his palace welcome to the Pope that it would be "folly to deprive ourselves of religion."

Spirituality was "not a danger for democracy, not a danger for secularism," he said. "We do not put anyone above anyone else, but we accept our Christian roots. That does not stop us from doing everything to ensure our Muslim compatriots can live their faith equally with all others."

The argument is explosive for supporters of laicité partly because it tampers with the hard-fought consensus that keeps religious practice out of public life. This includes the 2005 ban on religious dress in state schools, which was mainly meant to stop girls from France's six-million Muslim community covering their heads.

Mr Sarkozy persuaded the Pope, who is an expert in modern French literature, to come to Paris before visiting Lourdes in order to talk to the government and artists, intellectuals and scientists.

The trip is difficult because the Vatican sees France as one of the least obedient nations among its senior flock, a group that includes the Americas, Poland, Ireland and the southern European nations. Just over half the French still call themselves Catholic but as divorce, contraception and abortion have become routine, church attendance has shrivelled in recent decades. A majority of French children are born outside marriage.

The Vatican faults its French church leaders for failing to market the faith more vigorously in the face of the state-enforced laicité. Monsignor André Vingt-Trois, the Archbishop of Paris, denied that the Pope had come to deliver a pep talk and he insisted that "the Church is not a field of ruins". "I do not see him coming to tell us to pull up our socks," he said. "The Church in France is not gravely ill; it is even seriously alive."

Cardinal Vingt-Trois conceded that "For the French, the Pope is still John Paul II. ...It has to do with the two men's personalities. Benedict is not a man for the crowds. He is a very private person."

While congregations have dwindled, Church members point to a new activism among younger believers who are focusing on faith rather than tradition. These new activists, however, are uneasy about the conservative, German-born Pontiff who was known as the PanzerKardinal when the he was the Vatican's doctrinal enforcer.

The Pope is visiting to Lourdes as part of the 150th anniversary of apparitions of the Virgin to Bernadette Soubirous, a 14-year-old girl. The Catholic Church says the apparitions were genuine but the Pope has ordered officials to draw up new guidelines for bishops around the world concerning the recognition of other reported apparitions. He wants to avoid "excesses and abuses" and wants "scientific, psychological and theological criteria" to be applied to their certification.

European businesses back Blair for EU council president

* Rachel Stevenson
* guardian.co.uk,
* Tuesday July 29 2008
* Article history

Tony Blair

Tony Blair, who in 2003 said a full-time EU president would give the union a more powerful voice on the world stage. Photograph: Martin Argles

Tony Blair would make the best EU president for European businesses, according to a poll by the financial news channel CNBC Europe.

Blair was by far the most popular choice by those who took part in the poll, receiving 37% of the vote.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, came second, with the backing of 23% of respondents, and the other frontrunner being mentioned for the job, Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, won 12% of CNBC Europe's poll.

The current EU commission president, José Manuel Barroso, was fourth place, with 10%.

The role of EU council president will come into being next year, if the organisation's member states ratify the Lisbon treaty. But the exact nature and status of the role is yet to be decided - some countries want a high-profile figure to represent the EU at a global level, while others would prefer a more low-key, bureaucratic figure.

Blair outlined his vision for a full-time EU president back in 2003, saying a dedicated figurehead would give the union a more powerful voice on the world stage. He said he believed the enlarged EU needed a full-time president, rather than the current rotating leadership.

Since stepping down as prime minister last year, speculation that Blair will become the first president of the EU has been rife. David Miliband, the foreign secretary, has joked that the EU "might not be able to afford" Blair, given the other lucrative roles he has taken on since leaving Downing Street.

He is currently working as a peace envoy to the Middle East and has taken up advisory roles with insurance firm Zurich and investment bank JP Morgan - and is reported to have signed a £5m-plus deal for his memoirs.

Under the terms of the Lisbon treaty, the president of the European council would hold office for two-and-a-half years, replacing the current system where countries take turns at being president for six months.

Sarkozy's Speech

The full text of the inaugural speech of French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the Paris summit of the Union for the Mediterranean held at the Grand Palais in Paris:

Ladies and Gentlemen Heads of States and Government of Europe and Mediterranean,

Mr Secretary General of the UN,

Mr President of the European Commission,

Mr President of the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council,

Mr President of the Euro-Mediterranean Parliamentary Assembly,

Ministers,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Dear Friends,

It is an immense honour for France to host, here in Paris, the representatives of all the people who share the Mediterranean and for whom it is the source of all faith, all reason and all culture.

These people who have so often been divided, have so often fought, have so often torn each other apart, not because they were too different, but because underneath it all they were too similar, and who today have joined together because they know they share the same dream of civilisation and they want that dream to finally come true.

The Mediterranean has created a certain notion of happiness, wisdom and self-esteem. It has also created tragedy and its own way of feeling and expressing joy, suffering and human passion. It has pushed, sometimes to the extreme, the zest for life and fascination with death.

Today, everyone wants the forces of life to triumph. Everyone knows it will be hard. Everyone has memories of injustice, pain and broken dreams that will not fade away. Yet without forgetting any of the past, we owe it to the future generations, and primarily our children, to look to the future together.

Everyone is well aware that if this future is to be great, if this future is to be bright, if this future is to be a future of peace, a future of justice, a future of progress, everyone will have to make an effort as the European did to put an end to he deadly spiral of war and violence that, century upon century, sporadically brought barbarity to the heart of civilisation.

If we are all gathered here, it is because we all believe that the European dream and the Mediterranean dream are inextricably linked, that they will come true together or they will be broken together.

If we are gathered here, it is because we cannot base our relations merely on tolerance, because we have to go further and open ourselves up to one another in understanding and respect.

If we are gathered here, it is because we no longer want to be merely neighbours, we want to be partners.

In 1995, Europe took the initiative of launching the Euro-Mediterranean dialogue in Barcelona, which raised so many hopes among all those who love the Mediterranean and that it will one day cease to be the theatre of so many dangers and so many tragedies and will become a melting pot of civilisation again.

For the last thirteen years, the people of Europe and the Mediterranean have learnt to talk to one another and together think about the future. What Barcelona has accomplished must be sustained.

Yet the time has come for the awareness of our common destiny to prompt us to find the way to take action together, to together resume control of our common future, together write our common history. Huge challenges lie ahead, and they can only be taken up together.

The time has also come for the solidarity dictated by geography, history and culture to drive the peoples of Europe and the Mediterranean to share the responsibilities, decide unanimously, and recognise equal rights and duties for all.

We will only manage to build a better future by sharing power, in true solidarity, with respect for one another. This is the basis of the political choice, the moral choice, the fundamental historical choice of the Union for the Mediterranean: Parity, Equality and Shared Decision-Making Power.

The success or failure of everything we undertake together will depend first and foremost on the ability of each and every one of us to truly share. This means building increasingly close solidarity based on concrete projects.

Learning to get to know one another, understand each other, and respect each other by working together on projects that will satisfy everyone's vital interests. And in this way prepare the ground for prosperity, stability and peace.

This new approach to the relations between the peoples of Europe and the Mediterranean will be symbolized by this joint presidency at the head of the Union for the Mediterranean, which will join a Northern country with a Southern country.

And it is in this spirit that, with Egypt, France intends to assume on behalf of you al this responsibility that you have done it the honour of entrusting in it.

Not bloc against bloc, not North against South, not Europe on one side and everyone else on the other, not face to face, not even side by side, but united, together expressing everyone's common interest, together embodying this solidarity on which we wish to build our common future.

It is in the Mediterranean that the first fraternal civilisation was born, built on the idea of diversity. It is for all the peoples of the Mediterranean to again impart this lesson to all humankind by reviving this diversity that in the past enabled all the peoples and all the faiths of Cordoba, Tangiers and Constantine, Tunis, Alexandria, Beirut and so many other cities to live in pace, with mutual respect and in the knowledge that beneath their differences lay the same sense of humanity, the same love for life and the same need for justice that united them all.

It is in the Mediterranean that the religions of the Book were born. It is around the Mediterranean and nowhere else that they must be reconciled.

Together, we can build a major alliance between Africa, the Middle East and Europe out of the Mediterranean. We can make it the cleanest sea in the world, but also the world's largest co-development laboratory.

And by giving everyone access to water, food, energy and healthcare, by sharing knowledge, knowhow and education with everyone, by building shared universities, shared laboratories, by together creating the conditions for all young people to move freely between shores, by pooling our resources to safeguard people's security as best we can, we will show al of humankind what the beautiful word civilisation can still mean.

And we will teach our children how peoples who have lashed so often, but who still recall Antigone's cry - "I have come to share love, not to share hate"- and who remember that all their prayers speak of love, can once again understand and love one another.

Mediterranean summit hailed as 'best news for peace in the Middle East'

Written by Chris Perver
Saturday, 12 July 2008

French President Nicholas Sarkozy has hailed tomorrow's Paris summit as the "best news for peace in the Middle East". Forty-one of the forty-four heads of state invited to the summit have agreed to attend. The list of participants include Albania, Algeria, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Malta, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, Palestinian Authority, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Kingdom. French President Nicholas Sarkozy and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will co-host the event. But it is the presence Syrian President Bashar Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that is expected to steal the show. Both countries have been involved in indirect peace negotiations since May, and have signalled their readiness to move to direct talks.

There was a mixed reaction to the proposal for a Union for the Mediterranean (UPM) when it was first announced following Sarkozy's election in October 2007. Northern European states originally feared that the new project could become a competitor to the European Union, and objected to EU money being used to fund an initiative they had no part in. Arab states were concerned that the UPM would be dominated by wealthier European states, and objected to Israel's inclusion in the group. But the plan was adopted by the European Union on the 13th of March, and on the 13th of July the new Union for the Mediterranean will be formed...

Quote: "The union was the brainchild of his special advisor and speech-writer Henri Guaino. In Toulon in February 2007, Sarkozy said he wanted "to be the president of a France that will set the Mediterranean on the path of its reunification, after 12 centuries of division..." He wanted "to achieve a new Renaissance... undertake with this project a policy of civilisation as envisioned by the philosophers of the Enlightenment." In Tangiers last October, Sarkozy said: "Within every man and woman who lives on the shores of the Mediterranean sleeps the memory, nostalgia, for the unity lost 15 centuries ago." Not since the Italian dictator Mussolini revived the ancient Roman concept of Mare Nostrum ("our sea" in Latin) has a politician held such high ambitions for the Mediterranean.

Revelation 13:1
And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

A beast out of the sea

And as you can see from these two maps, despite the watering-down of Sarkozy's original proposal, the above quotation is an apt description of what is happening here. For it seems that the European Union and the Union for the Mediterranean are fulfilments of Biblical prophecy. The old Roman Empire is being revived, just as the Bible predicted. Throughout the centuries Christians have proclaimed the rebirth of the nation of Israel and the revival of the old Roman Empire. These Christians staggered not at the promises of God, though there was little evidence of these things coming to pass during their lifetimes. We have been privileged to witness the rebirth of the nation of Israel and the revival of the old Roman Empire. There is no excuse. The fact that there is a nation called Israel in the world is plain for all to see. And just in case you are not sure if the EU is the revival of the old Roman Empire, we have the frequent allusions to it by European leaders, the references to it in EU paraphernalia, the design of the EU parliament building, the motif on our coins, and the geographical area of the EU and UPM are roughly the same. The EU is the revived Roman Empire, no question about it. The Bible predicted over 2000 years ago that these things would happen. And today they are coming to pass before our very eyes. If the Bible was right about these things, what other things does the Bible say that we should know about? Jesus Christ is coming back soon (John 14:3). First, to take all those who have trusted in Him for salvation to be with Him where He is (John 14:3). And again, to judge this world for its wickedness (2nd Thessalonians 1:7-8). We need to be ready for His coming. How we can be ready? The Bible says our sins have separated between us and God (Isaiah 59:2). And if we die in our sins, where God is we cannot go (John 8:21). We need to have our sins forgiven. How can we have our sins forgiven? God sent His only Son Jesus Christ into this world 2000 years ago. He took God's punishment for your sins when He died upon the cross (Isaiah 53:6). All who believe on Him for salvation can have their sins forgiven and have eternal life in heaven (John 3:16). Turn away from your sins. Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ for salvation today and you shall be saved (Acts 16:31).

Source Irish Times, Bloomberg, Wikipedia

Tony Blair's Faith Foundation to sell religion as force for good

Tom Baldwin in Washington

Tony Blair launches his Faith Foundation in New York today, saying that he wants to spend most of his remaining years ensuring that religion is seen as a force for good in the world.

The new organisation, for which he is seeking hundreds of millions of pounds of charitable funding, will focus on developing better understanding between faiths as well as fostering concrete action on fighting poverty and disease. “In the end, this will be what I dedicate a very large part of my life to,” he told The Times yesterday.

Although the foundation's headquarters will be in London, Mr Blair said that he wanted its reach to extend across North America, Europe, Asia, the Far East and the Middle East. Mr Blair insisted that it would be wrong to interpret his decision to launch the foundation at the headquarters of Time Warner in New York as evidence that America, with its strong religious base, was more fertile territory for his message than a home country where he was forced out of office amid mounting unpopularity a year ago.

“We are doing reasonably well raising money in both places,” he said, pointing out that he had already spoken about the project at Westminster Cathedral last month.

Mr Blair shows no signs, however, of hankering after British politics. He declined to comment on the problems afflicting Gordon Brown, saying that it would be a bad mistake to be seen as intervening from afar. “I wish my own country and the Government nothing but good,” he added, before acknowledging that having been Prime Minister for as long as he had “you know when it's time to move on”.

Indeed, after spending much of his decade in Downing Street fighting shy of discussing his deep Christian convictions for fear of alienating Britain's largely secular society, he is now free of such constraints.

In his New York speech today, he will say: “Religious faith will be of the same significance to the 21st century as political ideology was to the 20th century. In an era of globalisation, there is nothing more important than getting people of different faiths and cultures to understand each other better and live in peace and mutual respect, and to give faith itself its proper place in the future.”

Mr Blair said that his work for the new foundation would dovetail with his job as peace envoy to the Middle East, a region where religion has too often been “a source of conflict rather than reconciliation”.

He declined to answer questions about how the latest scandal surrounding Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, would affect fragile and faltering progress in the region, but said: “The peace process remains absolutely essential and fundamental to the peace of the world.”

There have been suggestions that his foundation, as well as his role in negotiations between the Palestinians and neighbouring Arab countries, could by hampered by his stalwart support over the past six years for President Bush's War on Terror. Some Muslims see it has a new Crusade while the Religious Right has often characterised it as a clash of civilisations. Mr Blair said that even most opponents of the war did not seriously believe that it had a religious motivation, and those that did “were largely limited to extreme people”.

He was booed this week by peace protesters at Yale University and a speech on religion at Westminster Cathedral last month, marking his public debut as a Roman Catholic convert, was similarly disrupted. Mr Blair insisted yesterday, however, that both demonstrations were small and that he had not encountered such sentiments in the Middle East.

He is involved in designing courses at Yale for those seeking to promote faith as an alternative to conflict and his foundation will pursue Millennium Development goals by promoting inter-faith co-operation to fight malaria, a disease that Mr Blair pointed out yesterday kills hundreds of thousands of children in Africa each year, 40 per cent of whom are Muslims.

At his launch today, he will argue that religion, particularly the Abrahamic faiths of Christianity, Islam and Judaism, have to be rescued from those who would use it to create division or others who wish to write if off as an irrelevance.

Mr Blair says that all faiths have the values of respect, justice and compassion in common. His London headquarters will be at Abraham House, a library and museum, which will be an inter-faith forum to heal the extremism that he acknowledges had scarred British society in recent years.

Britain's reputation as a country living in fear of its home-grown Muslim terrorists is unfair, he said. “The people who capture the headlines and make the most noise are not necessarily representative of their own faith, let alone religion more generally.”

He does acknowledge, however, that Britain, where he once told his advisers that they were a most un-Godly lot, is, along with much of the Continent, out of step with the rest of the world in its secularism.

“Europe,” he said in another recent interview, “is more exceptional than sometimes it likes to think of itself.”

An ex-PM's career

June 2007 Tony Blair is appointed Middle East envoy for the Quartet - the EU, UN, US and Russia

November Hired by Washington Speakers Bureau Inc for worldwide speaking tour. Reportedly received £300,000 in the first week of his tour of North America

January 2008 Retained by JP Morgan Chase & Co as part-time adviser. Is subsequently reported to be earning a package worth £2million a year

January Advisory role on climate change and international politics to the Swiss insurer Zurich. Believed to be paid £500,000 a year. To be accountable to chief executive and take part in seminars

January Appointed unpaid adviser to Rwandan Government

— On international lecture circuit, can charge £100,000-£200,000 per speech. Said to have received £240,000 to address Chinese businessmen last November

— Has a £4.6million deal with Random House for his memoirs

Choosing 'Mr. Europe'

Published: Thursday 24 April 2008

The Treaty of Lisbon, expected to enter in force in 2009, introduces two new European top jobs: a high-profile president who will chair EU summit meetings for a two-and-a-half year term and a revamped foreign policy chief. However, selecting the right people to fill these positions will prove a politically sensitive task in the months ahead.

* News
* LinksDossiers
* Analysis

* Blair and Merkel top EU-wide poll (07 April 2008)
* Clear votes for new EU Treaty in Denmark, Austria and Germany (25 April 2008)
* Lisbon Treaty gets Portugal's nod of approval (24 April 2008)
* Barroso courts the Irish ahead of EU Treaty referendum (18 April 2008)

* Ratifying the Treaty of Lisbon (12 February 2008)
* The 'Treaty of Lisbon' (07 December 2007)

* Rethinking the EU budget (23 April 2008)
* 'Le Monde' goes Europe, the UK goes chicken (09 April 2008)
* The Lisbon Treaty: Playing Presidential poker? (08 April 2008)
* Blair's candidacy would give EU more credibility (07 April 2008)

Milestones:

* 13 Dec. 2007: EU heads of state and government signed the Treaty of Lisbon.
* 20 Feb. 2008: European Parliament approved treaty with 525-115 majority.
* June 2008: Ireland to hold referendum on treaty.
* 12 Dec. 2008: EU summit in Brussels to discuss new post of EU Council president.
* 1 Jan. 2009: Treaty of Lisbon comes into force, provided that it has been ratified by all 27 member states.
* June 2009: European Parliament elections.

Policy Summary Links

The EU's new 'Reform Treaty' was agreed upon by EU leaders at a summit in June 2007 and the updated final text was formally approved in October at an intergovernmental conference (IGC) (EurActiv 19/10/08). The "Treaty of Lisbonexternal ", as it was finally named, was officially signed by EU heads of state and government at a summit in the Portuguese capital on 13 December 2007 (EurActiv 14/12/07).

The treaty aims to streamline EU decision-making by introducing voting reforms in the Council, reducing the size of the Commission and strengthening the role of national parliaments. It also creates two new posts:

* A new, permanent president of the EU Council of Ministers, who will chair EU summits and replace the current system of rotating six-month rotating presidencies, and;
* a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a position currently held by Javier Solana, who will also be EU commissioner for external relations.

The legal foundation

The legal basis for the positions of permanent President of the European Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is briefly defined by the Lisbon Treaty:

* Article 9B:

5. The European Council shall elect its President, by a qualified majority, for a term of two and a half years, renewable once. In the event of an impediment or serious misconduct, the European Council can end the President's term of office in accordance with the same procedure.

6. The President of the European Council:

(a) shall chair it and drive forward its work;

(b) shall ensure the preparation and continuity of the work of the European Council in cooperation with the President of the Commission, and on the basis of the work of the General Affairs Council;

(c) shall endeavour to facilitate cohesion and consensus within the European Council, and;

(d) shall present a report to the European Parliament after each of the meetings of the European Council.

The President of the European Council shall, at his level and in that capacity, ensure the external representation of the Union on issues concerning its common foreign and security policy, without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The President of the European Council shall not hold a national office.

* Article 9E:

1. The European Council, acting by a qualified majority, with the agreement of the President of the Commission, shall appoint the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The European Council may end his term of office by the same procedure.

2. The High Representative shall conduct the Union's common foreign and security policy. He shall contribute by his proposals to the development of that policy, which he shall carry out as mandated by the Council. The same shall apply to the common security and defence policy.

3. The High Representative shall preside over the Foreign Affairs Council.

4. The High Representative shall be one of the Vice-Presidents of the Commission. He shall ensure the consistency of the Union's external action. He shall be responsible within the Commission for responsibilities incumbent on it in external relations and for coordinating other aspects of the Union's external action.

Issues:

Rules and timing unclear

The criteria for who to choose for these two new top positions were not written down in the Lisbon Treaty. It will therefore be up to Europe's heads of state and government to decide on who they want to choose as their new representatives.

Judging from the way the president of the European Commission has been selected in the past, it can be expected that mysterious bargaining will once again take place among the 27 EU countries. According to political analysts, bargaining would not just be limited to the two new positions but would also involve a new "EU Troika":

* The EU Council president;
* the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and;
* the president of the European Commission.

The bargaining package may also be extended to include the positions of the presidents of the European Commission and the European Parliament respectively.

The European elections will be held in June 2009 and the next college of the commissioners takes office six months after the European Parliament elections. But it is also possible that the European Council – the formal meeting place of EU heads of states and government - will elect its president first, especially if the ratification process is completed far enough ahead of the European elections. The precise timing of choosing 'Mr. or Ms. Europe' remains unclear.

The big question: who to choose?

In the absence of formal criteria, much speculation has broken out over who should take up the role of EU president. According to Stanley Crossick, a veteran EU policy analyst and founding chairman of the European Policy Centre (EPC) - a Brussels think tank - the new EU Troika needs to strike a balance between the following criteria (see blog post on Blogactiv for full analysisexternal ):

* Nationality;
* geography;
* size of country, and;
* political affiliation.

However, according to Crossick, the most desirable criterion is the person's ability to carry out the relevant responsibility. In this perspective, Crossick argues that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the only person who has "the authority and ability" to ensure the importance of the troika and would also contribute to another desirable criterion, which is gender balance.

According to Alain Lamassoure, a French MEP who advises French President Nicolas Sarkozy on European matters, developing a selection procedure is more useful at this stage than putting forward names of individuals.

Lamassoure argues in favour of waiting until after the June 2009 European elections before launching the nomination process as the political landscape will be clearer then. The election should also enable the leading European political party to influence the choice of Commission president, which will probably remain the most heavily sought-after position in the new troika. In that event, the choice of Commission president will thus belong to the party winning the EU election, leaving the choice of Council president to the party who comes in second.

What do the citizens think?

According to a poll by Harris Interactive published in early April, most European citizens consider German Chancellor Angela Merkel to be the most influential leader in Europe, while Tony Blair is the preferred candidate for the job of EU president.

But Ms. Merkel is not running at the moment, while the chances of Tony Blair appear to be slim due to the opposition of countries such as Belgium. As for Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, considered an ideal candidate by several heavyweight politicians, he is not a recognisable figure for many Europeans. As a possible EU president, he is credited with only 1% support in France, 2% in Germany, 1% in Italy and less than 1% in Spain and the UK.
Links Policy Summary
EU official documents

* Europa: Treaty of Lisbon portal: 'Taking Europe into the 21st century'external [FR]external [DE]external

NGOs and Think-Tanks

* Centre for European Reform : A Prime Candidate?external (11 February 2008)
* Open Europe: An EU PresidentPdf external
* New Europe - Denmark: The EU Liberals line Fogh up as Presidentexternal (11 April 2008)

Blogs

* Federal Union: A president for Europeexternal (5 April 2008)
* Blogactiv - Stanley Crossick's Blog: The 2009 EU Troikaexternal (27 January 2008)
* Blog de Jean Quatremer: L’arrière-garde européenne privée de poste?external (9 April 2008)
* FT Brussels blog: Tony Blair for President?external (1 February 2008)
* European Democracy.org: EU presidency: the quiet candidatesexternal (14 March 2008)
* TheNewFederalist.eu: It's time for one President of the EUexternal (5 March 2008)
* Petition against the nomination of Tony Blair as President of the EU: StopBlair.euexternal

Press articles

* The Nation: The mysterious method of choosing “Mr. Europe”external (10 April 2008)
* The Economist: If the EU wants a big hitter as president, it should go for Tony Blairexternal (17 April 2008)
* The Independent: The Big Question: What is the role of the EU President, and who are the leading candidates?external (18 March 2008)
* Der Spiegel: Name-Dropping Begins for EU’s First President (28 January 2008)
* EU Business: Europe needs a George Washington, says former French President (21 February 2008)
* PR Inside: Belgium issues early veto against Blair bid to become EU presidentexternal (2 April 2008)
* The Independent: Brown deal bars Blair from top EU jobexternal (20 April 2008)

Secret deal between EU-3 blocks Blair as EU president

21.04.2008 - 09:30 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

UK prime minister Gordon Brown has agreed to a secret deal with Germany and France which effectively rules out Tony Blair as a new EU president but the British ex-leader is also interested in the new role of Europe's foreign chief, a UK daily is reporting.

"We have agreed with France and Germany not to back a candidate one of the others doesn't want," a British diplomat is quoted saying by the Independent.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy previously backed Mr Blair as a possible candidate to head the EU's 27 member states while Mr Brown praised his potential qualities for the job but did not specifically back him.

At the same time, German chancellor Angela Merkel is reportedly opposed to such a scenario, which means that - under a new deal referred to by the British diplomat in the article – her opposition would automatically spoil Mr Blair's chances of being supported by any of Europe's three biggest countries.

Apart from Tony Blair, the other candidate mentioned most often and thought to enjoy backing by Berlin and Paris is Luxembourg's prime minister and veteran of the EU stage, Jean-Claude Juncker.

The position of the EU's president is contained in the bloc's Lisbon Treaty under the official heading of President of the European Council. The European Council refers to the regular meetings of EU leaders.

Talks have begun on what kind of salary, personnel and other perks the president should have.

But the actual job description of the EU president – a job that can be held for up to five years - still has yet to be decided. While his or her appointment would replace the current practice whereby the bloc is headed by a different EU leader every six months, it is unclear whether the role will be merely administrative or something more powerful.

In chairing the 27-nation bloc, the EU president would work together with another post created by the Lisbon Treaty, the EU foreign minister.

The new post will merge together the chair of Javier Solana as the EU's current foreign policy chief and that of Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the current European commissioner for external relations.

According to the Independent, Tony Blair may also be interested in becoming the new EU foreign minister.

The Lisbon Treaty is scheduled to come into force on 1 January 2009.

Nine member states have already ratified the treaty, others are planning to hold a parliamentary vote at some stage this year. Only Ireland will decide by a referendum, due on 12 June.

Blair's candidacy would give EU more credibility

Published: Monday 7 April 2008
Luis Simon, Visiting researcher, European Policy Centre (EPC)

Tony Blair would give the new position of Council President a "public momentum that very few others would," bringing "credibility to the EU project," argues Luis Simon, a visiting researcher at the European Policy Centre (EPC). But his candidacy ultimately depends on the "ability and will of the EU 27" to balance the divisions evoked by Iraq and his Eurosceptic image, he explains.

The following is a reproduction of a paper by Luis Simon, a PhD candidate at the Centre for European Politics at Royal Holloway, University of London.

Sometime around the end of the French presidency, in the second half of this year, the 27 heads of state and government that make up the EU Council will choose their President for two and a half years, a mandate which can only be renewed once. According to the Treaty, the Council will elect its President through qualified majority voting (QMV); according to conventional wisdom it will do so by resorting to some kind of combination of QMV and consensus (whatever that means). The 'package factor' will definitely play a role, as by the same time this year Barroso will have to announce whether he will attempt a second mandate, and the Council will have to decide whether Solana's reign will continue.

Given the inherently heterogeneous nature of the EU, numerous and different variables will have to be weighed up by numerous and different politicians. There is the supranational versus intergovernmental balance, the right versus left balance, the north versus south balance, the east versus west balance, and the small state versus big state balance. There is the 'Let's go for charisma' versus 'I'd rather have a deal breaker' dilemma. There is the 'How is he going to get along with Solana?' question (yes, everybody is assuming it will be a 'he' by now, so no gender balance). There is the issue of the Franco-German input. There is the 'What have you done when you were in office?' question and the 'How would you and your country prove your European credentials?' requirement. For one thing, there is the problem that we still do not know what is it he will have to do nor, for that matter, what is it that he will not have to do. You know, this is one of those difficult choices.

A decision on the name is still a long way off and, rightly or wrongly, most insiders judge it too premature in the current context to start playing the name game. Whereas the bubble seems to be growing uncomfortably bigger in Brussels' European quarter, the story will just get a few modest headlines en province, and only then when the day itself comes.

However, and beyond the EU's alleged failure to be a true Union of the people, by the people and for the people, symbolism runs deep. After all, whoever wins the lucky number (and it might be luck indeed!) will get to be the first elected president of a democratic and peaceful Europe. Here in town, despite systematic calls for prudence and restraint, names are starting to break underneath the doors of the many conference rooms that connect the European Parliament with the higher end of Rue de la Loi (the site of the EU Council and EU Commission): Jean-Claude Juncker, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Bertie Ahern, Wolfgang Schüssel, Tony Blair…yes…you heard right… Tony Blair. How dare he?

More than two weeks ago, Philip Stephens argued in the Financial Times that "European leaders need a President, not a nonentity": visibility shall be the defining issue, he asserted. It is the man that will shape the job. After all, as Stephens put it most politically incorrectly, you might want to think twice before embracing a name that has hardly been heard in Washington or Beijing. If you are looking to make the point that the EU matters, if what you want is to underline that the most publicly visible contribution of the long-awaited Treaty is for real, then you want a name that will be chased by traditional media and bloggers alike. This is something Blair can get you: he will give the job the public momentum that very few others would. In fact, the very leaking of his name in the early phases of the debate may be largely motivated by a desire to inject some glamour into public deliberations.

Thus far, Blair has the support of Sarkozy and the silence of Merkel. Not a bad start, one would be tempted to say; this support might, however, turn out to be a Kiss of Death, like some sort of big fellows' plot to control the Union.

So Blair is 'No Schengen, no Euro, thank you,' we hear. Well, maybe that should not be an excuse against him as much as an argument in his favour. Wouldn't such deference stimulate the debate about the EU in the United Kingdom? Wouldn't that contribute to the crucial enterprise of marketing the EU in Britain? If, as Euro-experts keep reminding us, the EU and Britain badly need each other for a safe ride through the 21st century, Blair's getting the post might turn out to be quite an important asset for both the EU and Britain.

Besides, aren't they running education or health policy in Scotland? Or are education and health just not that important? There is nobody in Britain seriously asking why there is a Scot in Downing Street in a context of devolution. Although the parallel is probably an unfortunate one, it suffices to illustrate the point that there are many superfluous arguments that can hijack a public debate and divert it from meaningful discussion.

It is, on the other hand, true that in democracy superfluousness lies in the eye of the beholder. Discussion should, arguably, focus on who will be best for the EU, and not just to the job. It is well known in the EU universe that the tasks of a particular job offer as much latitude as the job holder is willing and able to invent. Look at Solana. Let us not fool ourselves - this is not like any other EU job. If anything related to the job description is clear as of today, it is its enormous potential to deliver the public symbolism that the EU has historically lacked, and an EU of 27 badly needs.

So I was saying that many tangential issues can hijack a public debate from meaningful discussion. I'm afraid Iraq does not fall into that category. The ability to unite Europeans will certainly be a key quality the future President will be expected to show. Beyond the fact that a majority of EU member states supported the American initiative to intervene militarily in Iraq, Tony Blair played a characteristically salient part in the whole drama. This very fact may prove to be the ultimate test for the Briton's bid: Blair would have the hardest time getting Europeans to get over his role in Iraq.

In spite of whatever merits a big name might bring, for most Euro-enthusiasts the bottom line will be Blair's controversial image -a controversy that revolves around his 'No Schengen, no Euro' position and his role in Iraq. Nonetheless, and while the jury is still out on that one, it might be worth having a closer look at Blair's CV to see to what extent the man can sell Europeanness: His engaging attitude during the Northern Ireland peace process ranks, arguably, at the very top of Tony Blair's legacy, and fits well within the European ideal. Although still in the making, European values surely include a cult of dialogue and compromise.

Blair's government has fought hard to promote a culture of regionalisation and power sharing in what has historically been one of the most centralised political cultures in the world. His tenure has not only witnessed devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but also a (failed) attempt to promote regionalisation in England. This does sell in the Post-Westphalian Europe of subsidiarity.

Blair has justifiably won the appellative of most pro-European British prime minister. In a wider constant of Europeanness, Blair's crucial role in the development of a European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), his signature (a British signature) of a document which had the words 'Europe' and 'Constitutional' on it (yes, of course he had red lines) or his activism in launching a Lisbon Agenda which is aimed at striking a balance between growth and social justice in the challenging setting of the global knowledge economy can hardly be understated. Not just peanuts…

Someone like Blair would bring important assets to the EU's growingly pressing global agenda. He could do the trick with the Americans by most importantly helping reassure Washington of the complementary, not conflicting, nature of the expanding ESDP initiative vis-à-vis NATO. His credentials as both a champion of free trade and an advocate for the reform of Europe's Common Agricultural Policy would add much good to the EU's chemistry with leaders of other rich and poor countries alike in an era where global trade issues are, and will continue to be, high on the EU's agenda.

Last but not least, Tony Blair and New Labour have offered a thoughtful and comprehensive guide for welfare-minded cultures to survive in a context of economic globalisation. The Third Way has challenged an old and disputed maxim in Western thinking: a strong State and a strong civil society are not incompatible, but indeed necessarily complementary, Giddens dixit. In the days in which Americans are criticised for their realism and Europeans for their idealism, Blair's Third Way rhetoric has managed to bridge the American dream with European soberness, to put it (very) bluntly.

However, he may ironically end up falling victim of having majored in bridge-building at a time when the Transatlantic Bridge was inevitably falling apart anyway. Although the final judgement of New Labour's record on welfare policies will depend on how far to the right or to the left one sits, Blair's pedagogic task should be widely recognised: life-long learning; education, education, education; help people help themselves; protect the guy, not the job! While the President of the EU Council would indeed sniff very few of these core issues, all too well guarded in the fortress of domestic politics, Europe could use that kind of talk at the highest political level.

To be sure, the viability of Blair's candidacy will depend on the fullly fledged support of the British government (tbc) and, ultimately, upon the ability and will of the Twenty Seven to balance the divisions that the Briton's record on Iraq and his image as a Eurosceptic evoke, with the momentum that a politician of his stature can bring to the credibility of the EU project. Are they ready? Are we?