Europe to Obama: ‘No, we can’t’
Barack Obama's Afghanistan strategy, the centrepiece of his revamped foreign policy, will hit the rocks of European realpolitik at a Nato summit dinner in Baden Baden tonight.
Turkish flag flies outside Nato venue in Strasbourg on Fri (photo: Bruno Waterfield)
President Obama's plan for troop surge in Afghanistan risks Americanising the West's intervention there at a moment when his new strategy demands internationalising and regionalising the effort.
Mr Obama's favoured candidate, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Denmark's prime minister, for the post of Nato secretary general (with the support of Britain, France and Germany) is in danger of becoming branded a hate figure in the Muslim world.
Turkey (absolutely key to regionalising and localising the intervention) says it has been enlisted by other countries in the Islamic world to resist Mr Rasmussen.
The Danish PM is identified with the Prophet Mohammed cartoon row which led to violent protests and deaths in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
On the troops, Mr Obama will keep quiet - he knows what the answer will be from European countries (No, we can't).
The problem means that American troops in Afghanistan are set to increase to around 68,000 by the end of 2009 from 38,000 today - US military will then outnumber other forces by two to one.
The claim that the Afghanistan war is an international or Nato-led show will look weak - the Article 5 idea was always pretty stretched and is wearing very thin for European publics eight years after September 11.
Europe is keen to provide gendarmerie, probably with EU badges, to train Afghan police, casualty shy Europeans are only prepared to play the 'West knows best' game but not if it is too dangerous.
Mr Obama's intention to concentrate on a "civilian surge" (backed by France and Germany) to construct functioning political, judicial and security structures might be undermined an increasingly Americanised military conflict hardens Afghan attitudes.
These same attitudes (Afghans get to vote in August) are a concern in the row over Mr Rasmussen, highlighting the fact that Nato's new mission to save the world, construct new nations etc, lacks the same coherence as its Cold War founding rationale.
The Alliance might be celebrating its 60th birthday but Nato is unable to choose the favoured candidate because a new secretary general must also be acceptable outside the corridors of Washington, Berlin, London and Paris to be a figure that can win respect in a region where the West is trying to build a country out of nothing.
Turkey (probably with the support of the Afghan government and other regional countries) has resisted Mr Rasmussen's candidature because of his refusal, three years ago, to apologise for Danish newspaper caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad which triggered violent protests across the Muslim world.
Outside of the merits of the case (Mr Rasmussen was right not to apologise), the Turks have a point or two: riots over the cartoons have led to deaths in Afghanistan and the Taliban continues to use the issue as a propaganda tool.
Turkey has persuasive voice and is central to Mr Obama's new policy. That is why he is heading there after Europe. Turkey has 900 Muslim troops on the ground and will be taking over Nato's Regional Command Centre which covers the Kabul area in August.
Big questions to deal with.
At a time when Nato and President Obama are stepping up military, policing and reconstruction efforts, with Muslim Turkey playing a key role, is really a good idea to have the Alliance headed by a man who will trigger violent street protests whenever he visits Pakistan or Afghanistan?
Will Nato and the West be able to bring on board regional players, such as Iran and Pakistan, if Mr Rasmussen becomes a focus of violent street protests every time he sets foot in the neighbourhood?
What is Nato for anyway?
An Alliance set up for post-WW2 Europe in the Cold War is today trying to build schools, bring rights to women, to construct police forces, impose democracy and fabricate nation states on the other side of the world.
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