Choosing 'Mr. Europe'

Published: Thursday 24 April 2008

The Treaty of Lisbon, expected to enter in force in 2009, introduces two new European top jobs: a high-profile president who will chair EU summit meetings for a two-and-a-half year term and a revamped foreign policy chief. However, selecting the right people to fill these positions will prove a politically sensitive task in the months ahead.

* News
* LinksDossiers
* Analysis

* Blair and Merkel top EU-wide poll (07 April 2008)
* Clear votes for new EU Treaty in Denmark, Austria and Germany (25 April 2008)
* Lisbon Treaty gets Portugal's nod of approval (24 April 2008)
* Barroso courts the Irish ahead of EU Treaty referendum (18 April 2008)

* Ratifying the Treaty of Lisbon (12 February 2008)
* The 'Treaty of Lisbon' (07 December 2007)

* Rethinking the EU budget (23 April 2008)
* 'Le Monde' goes Europe, the UK goes chicken (09 April 2008)
* The Lisbon Treaty: Playing Presidential poker? (08 April 2008)
* Blair's candidacy would give EU more credibility (07 April 2008)

Milestones:

* 13 Dec. 2007: EU heads of state and government signed the Treaty of Lisbon.
* 20 Feb. 2008: European Parliament approved treaty with 525-115 majority.
* June 2008: Ireland to hold referendum on treaty.
* 12 Dec. 2008: EU summit in Brussels to discuss new post of EU Council president.
* 1 Jan. 2009: Treaty of Lisbon comes into force, provided that it has been ratified by all 27 member states.
* June 2009: European Parliament elections.

Policy Summary Links

The EU's new 'Reform Treaty' was agreed upon by EU leaders at a summit in June 2007 and the updated final text was formally approved in October at an intergovernmental conference (IGC) (EurActiv 19/10/08). The "Treaty of Lisbonexternal ", as it was finally named, was officially signed by EU heads of state and government at a summit in the Portuguese capital on 13 December 2007 (EurActiv 14/12/07).

The treaty aims to streamline EU decision-making by introducing voting reforms in the Council, reducing the size of the Commission and strengthening the role of national parliaments. It also creates two new posts:

* A new, permanent president of the EU Council of Ministers, who will chair EU summits and replace the current system of rotating six-month rotating presidencies, and;
* a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a position currently held by Javier Solana, who will also be EU commissioner for external relations.

The legal foundation

The legal basis for the positions of permanent President of the European Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is briefly defined by the Lisbon Treaty:

* Article 9B:

5. The European Council shall elect its President, by a qualified majority, for a term of two and a half years, renewable once. In the event of an impediment or serious misconduct, the European Council can end the President's term of office in accordance with the same procedure.

6. The President of the European Council:

(a) shall chair it and drive forward its work;

(b) shall ensure the preparation and continuity of the work of the European Council in cooperation with the President of the Commission, and on the basis of the work of the General Affairs Council;

(c) shall endeavour to facilitate cohesion and consensus within the European Council, and;

(d) shall present a report to the European Parliament after each of the meetings of the European Council.

The President of the European Council shall, at his level and in that capacity, ensure the external representation of the Union on issues concerning its common foreign and security policy, without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

The President of the European Council shall not hold a national office.

* Article 9E:

1. The European Council, acting by a qualified majority, with the agreement of the President of the Commission, shall appoint the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The European Council may end his term of office by the same procedure.

2. The High Representative shall conduct the Union's common foreign and security policy. He shall contribute by his proposals to the development of that policy, which he shall carry out as mandated by the Council. The same shall apply to the common security and defence policy.

3. The High Representative shall preside over the Foreign Affairs Council.

4. The High Representative shall be one of the Vice-Presidents of the Commission. He shall ensure the consistency of the Union's external action. He shall be responsible within the Commission for responsibilities incumbent on it in external relations and for coordinating other aspects of the Union's external action.

Issues:

Rules and timing unclear

The criteria for who to choose for these two new top positions were not written down in the Lisbon Treaty. It will therefore be up to Europe's heads of state and government to decide on who they want to choose as their new representatives.

Judging from the way the president of the European Commission has been selected in the past, it can be expected that mysterious bargaining will once again take place among the 27 EU countries. According to political analysts, bargaining would not just be limited to the two new positions but would also involve a new "EU Troika":

* The EU Council president;
* the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and;
* the president of the European Commission.

The bargaining package may also be extended to include the positions of the presidents of the European Commission and the European Parliament respectively.

The European elections will be held in June 2009 and the next college of the commissioners takes office six months after the European Parliament elections. But it is also possible that the European Council – the formal meeting place of EU heads of states and government - will elect its president first, especially if the ratification process is completed far enough ahead of the European elections. The precise timing of choosing 'Mr. or Ms. Europe' remains unclear.

The big question: who to choose?

In the absence of formal criteria, much speculation has broken out over who should take up the role of EU president. According to Stanley Crossick, a veteran EU policy analyst and founding chairman of the European Policy Centre (EPC) - a Brussels think tank - the new EU Troika needs to strike a balance between the following criteria (see blog post on Blogactiv for full analysisexternal ):

* Nationality;
* geography;
* size of country, and;
* political affiliation.

However, according to Crossick, the most desirable criterion is the person's ability to carry out the relevant responsibility. In this perspective, Crossick argues that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the only person who has "the authority and ability" to ensure the importance of the troika and would also contribute to another desirable criterion, which is gender balance.

According to Alain Lamassoure, a French MEP who advises French President Nicolas Sarkozy on European matters, developing a selection procedure is more useful at this stage than putting forward names of individuals.

Lamassoure argues in favour of waiting until after the June 2009 European elections before launching the nomination process as the political landscape will be clearer then. The election should also enable the leading European political party to influence the choice of Commission president, which will probably remain the most heavily sought-after position in the new troika. In that event, the choice of Commission president will thus belong to the party winning the EU election, leaving the choice of Council president to the party who comes in second.

What do the citizens think?

According to a poll by Harris Interactive published in early April, most European citizens consider German Chancellor Angela Merkel to be the most influential leader in Europe, while Tony Blair is the preferred candidate for the job of EU president.

But Ms. Merkel is not running at the moment, while the chances of Tony Blair appear to be slim due to the opposition of countries such as Belgium. As for Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, considered an ideal candidate by several heavyweight politicians, he is not a recognisable figure for many Europeans. As a possible EU president, he is credited with only 1% support in France, 2% in Germany, 1% in Italy and less than 1% in Spain and the UK.
Links Policy Summary
EU official documents

* Europa: Treaty of Lisbon portal: 'Taking Europe into the 21st century'external [FR]external [DE]external

NGOs and Think-Tanks

* Centre for European Reform : A Prime Candidate?external (11 February 2008)
* Open Europe: An EU PresidentPdf external
* New Europe - Denmark: The EU Liberals line Fogh up as Presidentexternal (11 April 2008)

Blogs

* Federal Union: A president for Europeexternal (5 April 2008)
* Blogactiv - Stanley Crossick's Blog: The 2009 EU Troikaexternal (27 January 2008)
* Blog de Jean Quatremer: L’arrière-garde européenne privée de poste?external (9 April 2008)
* FT Brussels blog: Tony Blair for President?external (1 February 2008)
* European Democracy.org: EU presidency: the quiet candidatesexternal (14 March 2008)
* TheNewFederalist.eu: It's time for one President of the EUexternal (5 March 2008)
* Petition against the nomination of Tony Blair as President of the EU: StopBlair.euexternal

Press articles

* The Nation: The mysterious method of choosing “Mr. Europe”external (10 April 2008)
* The Economist: If the EU wants a big hitter as president, it should go for Tony Blairexternal (17 April 2008)
* The Independent: The Big Question: What is the role of the EU President, and who are the leading candidates?external (18 March 2008)
* Der Spiegel: Name-Dropping Begins for EU’s First President (28 January 2008)
* EU Business: Europe needs a George Washington, says former French President (21 February 2008)
* PR Inside: Belgium issues early veto against Blair bid to become EU presidentexternal (2 April 2008)
* The Independent: Brown deal bars Blair from top EU jobexternal (20 April 2008)